Four Times Boko Haram?  How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence

Seven attacks every day — yet the most deadly militias escape global attention, finds six-year data study

Terror groups are tearing Nigeria apart, while the outside world misreads the picture, according to data scientists behind a landmark study.

79,323 people were killed in Nigeria between 2020-2025 – an average of seven attacks per day.  More than 42,000 were innocent civilians.

Researchers at ORFA, The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa, spent years cross-referencing attack patterns — and the data gathered overturns longstanding assumptions.

Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) — the terror groups most blamed for violence — together carried out 12% of civilian killings:  Boko Haram 8%, and ISWAP 4%.

Other participants have a far higher body count. Militias categorised as ‘Fulani Terror Groups’ killed 44% of all civilians — four times the killing of Boko Haram and ISWAP combined.

The ORFA study records up to 60 data elements for each violence incident, depending on the circumstances of the event.

ORFA is careful to distinguish between armed Fulani terror groups and the Fulani people as a whole, the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence.

‘The data makes this very difficult to ignore,’ says Frans Vierhout, Senior Research Analyst of the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa.

‘We look at how killing occurs. Who they target, where they operate, the seasonal fluctuations of killings — and the evidence points strongly in one direction.’

‘Violence linked to Fulani militias is the dominant force behind Nigeria’s death toll. The Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is, at best, misleading.’

‘Nigeria is incubating a terror network which the outside world has yet to acknowledge.’

Key Findings: the full report can be accessed here.

• 79,323 people killed in terror-related violence in the study period — an average of 36 people each day
• 42,033 killings were civilians; Security Forces and Terror Groups make up 37,290 deaths
• Boko Haram is not the deadliest group. Fulani Terror Groups killed 44% of civilians (18,577); Boko Haram and ISWAP combined killed 12% (4,941)
• Twice as many Christians killed as Muslims: 28,551 Christians against 13,224 Muslims. When Christian losses are examined in terms of state populations, Christians were killed at 4.4 times the rate of Muslims in affected states – a huge proportional loss to local populations
• 75% of civilians killed in community attacks:  raids on farming settlements involving abduction, rape and property destruction
• Abductions:  34,773 civilians abducted. ‘Fulani Terror Groups’ and ‘Unidentified Terror Groups’ carried out 43% and 49% of abductions respectively
• ‘Captivity by Creed’:  ORFA’s field research indicates Christian and Muslim hostages are treated differently. Muslim captives face lower ransoms and less violence; Christians face higher ransoms, greater likelihood of execution. Christian women face sexual violence

Abductions:  a ‘hierarchy of human worth’

The ORFA data project also sheds new light on mass kidnappings.  34,773 civilians were abducted over the six years – the vast majority seized during armed raids on their own homes.

The number of Muslims kidnapped rose steeply, bringing the religious communities close to parity:  Christian abductions numbered 15,932 and Muslims 15,272 in total over the period.

Yet field research carried out by ORFA, drawing on survivor testimony from multiple abduction events, reveals deeper religious dynamics drive kidnapping.

Christian hostages face higher ransoms, longer negotiation periods, worse violence and greater risk of execution – even after their families have paid in full.

Christian female hostages face extreme sexual violence, forced conversion and forced marriage.

‘The field research reveals a lesser value is assigned to a Christian life,’notes Steven Kefas, Senior Research Analyst and author of ‘Captivity by Creed: the religious sorting system nobody talks about.’

‘From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors.  It is a system – consistent across multiple states, armed groups, and multiple years of survivor testimony.’

The ORFA 6-Year Study authors urge governments and international bodies to engage closely with the data released today.   

They urge a recognition that without a full accounting of the religious dimensions of violence in Nigeria, attempts to find solutions remain incomplete.

——–ENDS——–

For more information, or to arrange an interview, contact Caroline Duffield, Media and PR for ORFA, The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa:  orfa.africa    Email:   orfacommunications@gmail.com  ORFA data analysts and in-country partners are available for briefings and interviews.

Full PDF copies of the ORFA 2026 6-Year Study can be accessed here. Appendix 1 can be accessed here and Appendix 2 here.

ORFA 6-Year Data Study 2020-2025:  how figures are compiled.

The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) monitors data through 5 data streams.

These are: our primary partner research base, staffed by full-time researchers; other local country partners; our external partners, including independent academic data gathering projects; local media and local NGO reports; and social media, in specific cases where data can be validated by our primary partner. Once validated, up to 60 data elements are recorded for each violence incident, depending on the circumstances of the event. Read more about the methodology and data sources by clicking this link: ORFA methodology ORFA, The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa, monitors the state of religious freedom, documents rights violations, and informs decision-makers. The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa is a program of the Foundation Platform for Social Transformation, a registered charity in Voorburg, The Netherlands, under Chamber of Commerce #50264249.

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