Mass killings, abductions and torture of whole families go largely unchallenged as military pursue targets hundreds of miles away, finds four-year data project

Islamist extremists enjoy relative freedom to carry out atrocities against civilians in large regions of Nigeria, according to data scientists behind a four-year study.

Researchers at the Observatory of Religious Freedom in Africa recorded over 55,000 killings and mapped thousands of farm massacres and mass abductions in a four-year period, including in Nigeria’s fragile North Central Zone and Southern Kaduna.

A little-known terror group, the Fulani Ethnic Militia or FEM, commit mass killings hundreds of times a year through this region.

Across the country, over 11,000 incidents¹ of extreme violence took place during the data period, with more than 55,000 killings and 21,000 abductions. In the North Central zone alone, 3,007 incidents of extreme violence occurred.  2,010 incidents involved killings, 700 were abduction incidents, and 297 were a combination of killings and abductions.

Now data mapping has revealed security operations are concentrated in the North-East and North-West of Nigeria, hundreds of miles from the scenes of FEM atrocities

The map on the left (Fig.1) shows all killings in recorded violence incidents. 

The map on the right (Fig.2) shows incidents in which mostly militants were killed as government forces engaged Islamists.

Across the North-Central zone and Southern Kaduna – where hundreds of FEM atrocities occur – there is markedly little security engagement at the scene of attacks.

‘Millions of people are left undefended,’ notes Frans Vierhout, Senior Analyst at The Observatory of Religious Freedom in Africa.  ‘For years, we’ve heard of calls for help being ignored, as terrorists attack vulnerable communities.  Now the data tells its own story.’

Please access the full report here

Key Findings: 

• 55,910 people were killed in the context of terror groups in Nigeria within four years
• Only a fraction of civilians were killed by ISIS or al-Qaeda affiliates. The little-known Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) killed at least 42% of all civilians in community attacks, while Boko Haram and ISWAP (‘Islamic State West Africa Province’) combined killed 10%
• The Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM), an ethno-religious terror group, are considered by many security experts to be a ‘twin’ of Islamists killing and kidnapping civilians in Northern Nigeria
• Land-based community attacks form the largest category of civilian killings (81%). FEM invade small Christian farming settlements to kill, rape, abduct and burn homes
• 2.7 Christians were killed for every Muslim in the reporting period
• Islamist extremists kill both Muslims and Christians, although Christian death tolls are far higher
• Proportional loss: in states where attacks occur, proportional loss to Christian communities is exceptionally high. In terms of state populations, 6.5 times as many Christians are being murdered as Muslims

Abduction:  hallmark of Islamist terror

The ORFA data project also reveals the widening reach of Islamist kidnapping in Nigeria, with incidents escalating through the four years: 2020 (1,665 people abducted) 2021 (5,907 people abducted) 2022 (7,705 people abducted) and 2023 (6,255 people abducted).

Christians are 1.4 times more likely to be abducted than Muslims.   In terms of state populations, proportional loss of Christians is higher:  around 5.1 Christians are abducted for every Muslim in terms of local populations.

‘Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) are targeting Christian populations, while Muslims also suffer severely at their hands,’ notes Rev. Dr. Gideon Para-Mallam, partner to ORFA and analyst.

‘Kidnappers work to Islamist goals.  Where young women are kidnapped, tortured and sexually violated, hope for normal married life, and family, may vanish.’

At the end of 2023, the IDMC² reported 3.3 million Nigerians were forcibly displaced from their homes and surviving in makeshift camps. The authors of the ORFA data project urged the international community to examine the data and to do more to fully understand the scale of the challenge to Nigeria.

1. see Appendix 9E and 10E in main report  ↩︎
2. IDMC:  International Displacement Monitoring Centre, data unit established as part of the Norwegian Refugee Council  ↩︎