The Illusion of Progress: Mapping Nigeria’s Deteriorating Security Landscape

By Steven Kefas or Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA)

As President Bola Tinubu marks his second year in office this May, a comprehensive analysis of Nigeria’s security landscape reveals a troubling reality: despite promises and claims of improved security, terror groups are gaining ground, adopting new tactics, and threatening the nation’s food security with strategic attacks on farming communities in the Middle Belt.

Security Stagnation Under New Leadership

When President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, he inherited a nation plagued by various security challenges. His administration pledged to tackle these issues with renewed vigor and strategic approaches. However, data from the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) paints a different picture.

Table 1. Comparison of the trends of civilians killed and abducted in the geopolitical zones

Although the number of killings went down, the number of kidnappings went up with nearly the same number of victims. Taken together: -2%.

Table 2. Comparison of the trends of incidents with civilians killed and abducted in the geopolitical zones

The same holds true for the incidents with killings or kidnappings. The number of incidents with killings went down, while the number of incidents with kidnappings went up. Taken together: +5%.

Changing Tactics

The security situation in Kaduna and some states in the North West tell a story of adaptation rather than elimination. Local government areas such as Kajuru, Chikun, Kauru, and Kaura have experienced a shift from mass casualty attacks to targeted kidnappings.

This tactical shift suggests that while dispersed FEM bandits from the North West have successfully infiltrated Kaduna state, they currently lack the coordination and capacity for large-scale attacks. Instead, they have pivoted to kidnapping for ransom operations, which require fewer resources while still generating funding and spreading terror.

The raw numbers tell a stark story. Despite changes in leadership and security strategies, the situation on the ground remains largely unchanged—or in some regions, has deteriorated significantly.

Plateau State: Strategic Targeting of Farming Communities

Plateau State, once known as Nigeria’s “Home of Peace and Tourism,” has become an epicenter of violence with particularly troubling patterns emerging in 2025. This is a continuation of the trend that was visible in 2024 compared to the previous four years.

Table 3. Trend of civilians killed in Plateau State

The data show slightly more attacks (+4) with seriously more victims (+119).

Recent attacks in Plateau State reveal a calculated strategy to disrupt the farming season. The timing of these attacks—coinciding with planting periods—suggests a deliberate attempt to prevent farmers from accessing their lands, threatening food production in a region crucial to Nigeria’s agricultural output.

The Berom Youth Moulders Association’s recent press statement raises alarming concerns about threats of future attacks. These warnings indicate a coordinated campaign to permanently displace farming communities, creating a long-term food security crisis that could affect the entire nation.

Emerging Terror Groups Threaten Nigeria’s Food Basket

The North Central region and by extension the entire northern part of the country, responsible for a significant portion of Nigeria’s food production, faces an unprecedented convergence of threats from existing and newly emerging terror groups:

• The emergence of Lakurawa in Sokoto and Kebbi states
• Mahmuda group establishing presence in Kwara and parts of Niger state
• Ansaru terror cells setting up operations in Kogi state
• Resurgence of Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) attacks in Plateau and Benue states

These developments represent not just isolated security incidents but a strategic encirclement of Nigeria’s food-producing heartland. The concentration of these groups in areas responsible for staple crop production suggests a deliberate attempt to control food resources and destabilize the nation’s economy.

Over the overall 5-year reporting period, the North Central zone has experienced most attacks with civilian killings during the farming season—much more so than in other geopolitical zones. This trend reinforces the strategic nature of these attacks, designed to maximize disruption to Nigeria’s food production capabilities.

Fig. 1. Civilians killed per month in the geopolitical zones for the overall 5-year reporting period (Oct 2019 – Sep 2024)

North East: Boko Haram and ISWAP Show Renewed Capability

While the government has repeatedly claimed significant victories against Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), recent events tell a different story. These groups have demonstrated improved tactical capabilities, successfully launching complex attacks on military facilities in the North East.

These attacks on hardened military targets indicate that terror groups are not retreating but adapting and potentially growing stronger than they were two years ago. Their ability to challenge the Nigerian military directly represents a significant shift in the security landscape.

Kidnapping Crisis: The Balloon Effect

While the military has made notable progress in neutralizing bandit leaders in states like Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto, a worrying pattern has emerged. Rather than eliminating the threat, these operations appear to have created a “balloon effect”—squeezing criminals from one area only to see them reappear in neighboring regions.

Table 4. Trend of civilians abducted in four northwestern states

Kidnappings in Kaduna State had a 37% increase compared to the foregoing 4-year average. For Katsina State it was 97%, Sokoto State 108% and Zamfara State 156%.

Kaduna and other North West states have experienced a dramatic surge in kidnappings, suggesting that foot soldiers from disbanded bandit groups have relocated to more vulnerable areas. This pattern reveals a critical gap in security operations—the failure to simultaneously secure potential escape routes and vulnerable neighboring regions during major offensives.

Military Efforts and Challenges

The Nigerian military continues to make sacrifices including paying the ultimate price as seen recently in the ongoing fight against insurgency. Their operations have successfully neutralized several high-profile bandit leaders and disrupted terror networks. These efforts, particularly in the North West, have yielded important tactical victories.

However, the persistence and adaptation of terror groups highlight the need for a more comprehensive approach. Military operations must be more intentional, ensuring that when pressure is applied in one area, adjacent regions are secured to prevent the displacement of threats rather than their elimination.

Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads

The comprehensive data analysis reveals a Nigeria standing at a critical juncture. The country faces not merely isolated security incidents, but a systematic campaign that threatens the very foundations of national survival. The strategic encirclement of food-producing regions by multiple terror groups, combined with the seasonal timing of attacks to maximize agricultural disruption, points to a sophisticated understanding of Nigeria’s vulnerabilities by hostile actors.

The economic implications extend far beyond immediate security concerns. With major food-producing states under siege and farming communities displaced, Nigeria risks a food crisis that could trigger widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and massive internal displacement. The targeting of the Middle Belt—Nigeria’s agricultural heartland—represents an existential threat to the nation’s food sovereignty.

International observers and Nigeria’s development partners must recognize that this is no longer a regional security issue but a potential humanitarian catastrophe with implications for West African stability. The failure to address these interconnected threats comprehensively threatens to transform Nigeria from a regional power into a failed state, with consequences that would reverberate across the entire continent.

The window for effective intervention is rapidly closing. Without immediate, coordinated action that addresses both the security symptoms and underlying drivers of conflict, Nigeria faces the prospect of becoming unable to feed its own population while simultaneously battling multiple insurgencies across its territory.